Despite soft market conditions persisting across most of Aotearoa New Zealand, dozens of suburbs have defied the downturn, increasing in value in the past three months and providing evidence the bottom of the market is approaching.
CoreLogic NZ’s interactive Mapping the Market tool reveals detailed insights into the three and 12-month change in values across 917 suburbs nationally.
The data shows 128 suburbs increased in value in the past three months and of those 71 recorded an increase in median value of at least 0.5%.
The Kaipara District, in the Northland Region had two top performing suburbs over the past quarter, with values in Maungaturoto and Kaiwaka up 4.7% and 3.5% respectively.
Over the past 12 months, 860 suburbs declined in value, with 729 of those suburbs down at least 5%. The softest 18 suburbs are all in the wider Wellington area, with falls in the range of 19-24%.
CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson said the quarterly measure of housing value movements was a timelier measurement of the country’s property market downturn.
“Over the past year, 57 suburbs saw values rise with 33 of them increasing by at least 2% with the majority of these are located in the lower half of the South Island. However, when you zoom in to the past three months that figure increases to 128 suburbs where values have risen and more than half of those are up by at least half a percent,” Mr Davidson said.
“The trend shows house price falls have effectively levelled out and provides further albeit tentative evidence that the downturn may be winding up, for better or worse, depending on your perspective.
“I’m still expecting further falls to come and there will be no neat end to the downturn rather the expectation is for a relatively subdued market, as stretched affordability and tight investor regulations contain demand and limit growth.”
Property values dropped in all 195 suburbs analysed over the past 12 months, ranging from less than 5% in areas such as Waiuku, Ponsonby, and Omaha, up to more than 16% in Parau, Wattle Downs, and Totara Heights. More generally, 107 suburbs saw a drop of at least 10%.
However, in the past quarter, the number of suburbs that fell in value reduced to 165, with 14 suburbs seeing a rise of at least 0.5%. Red Hill was the strongest performing suburb in the three months to June, with values rising 2.5%.
Over the past year all 34 suburbs analysed in Hamilton fell in value, ranging from a drop of 1.8% in Queenwood up to more than 11% in Temple View.
In the past three months, four suburbs saw a subtle rise in value, including Baverstock, Hamilton East, Flagstaff and Harrowfield.
There have been significant falls in median property values in 20 suburbs across Tauranga in the past year, ranging from around 9% in Tauranga (central), Welcome Bay, and Bellevue to 12% in Otumoetai and Maungatapu. Otumoetai was the only suburb where values didn’t drop over the past three months (0.0%) and no suburbs saw values rise.
Mount Maunganui remains Tauranga’s most expensive suburb at $1.38 million despite a 10.8% decline, equivalent to around $167,000, since June 2022. By contrast, Gate Pa, Poike and Parkvale have median values of less than $600,000.
All 96 suburbs analysed in Wellington fell in value in the past year, ranging from 1.8% in Te Marua, up to a decline of 21% or more in Boulcott, Stokes Valley, and Southgate. In 80 of the suburbs, the falls have been at least 15%, with another 15 areas falling between 10-15%.
Over the past three months only Aotea saw values rise, while values were flat in Mount Victoria.
Seatoun remains the most expensive suburb $1.7 million despite recording a $350,000 drop in price over the past year. At $479,1000 Wellington Central remains the cheapest area due to the large proportion of flats/apartments.
Christchurch’s 82 suburbs analysed have shown the most resilience, with Wainui seeing a rise in median values over the past year of 3%. All other suburbs saw values fall over the past year, though areas such as Aranui, Beckenham, and Akaroa declined by less than 1%, and the weakest suburb, Spreydon, has seen a drop of 9.3%.
Over the past three months, 11 suburbs saw values rise with the Templeton the strongest, up 1%.
Fendalton and Kennedys Bush are still Christchurch’s most expensive areas, with median values of at least $1.6 million. Values in Waltham, Linwood, and Phillipstown are the most affordable at sub-$500,000.
Of the 62 Dunedin suburbs analysed, all saw a drop in median values in the year to June – ranging from a modest 0.3% fall in Vauxhall, up to 13% or more in Roslyn, North Dunedin, and Saint Leonards.
Nine suburbs saw values rise over the quarter, ranging from a 0.2% increase Brockville to a 1.9% lift in Normanby.
Maori Hill is still Dunedin’s most expensive area ($973,100), down from $1.1 million a year ago. South Dunedin is the cheapest, with a median of around $405,000.
Property market forecast
Mr Davidson said overall the widespread downturn has continued in recent months, but the floor may be close as mortgage rates peak, migration spikes, employment stays high, and credit rules loosen.
“It wouldn’t be a surprise to see a few more suburbs show increases in the next three to six months, but we do not anticipate a fresh boom. Indeed, mortgage rates are still high, affordability is stretched, and debt to income ratio restrictions loom large in early 2024,” Mr Davidson said.