Generally speaking, the parts of the country that have had a strong flow of listings over the past year have had muted value growth, including Te Kauwhata and Pokeno, both in the Waikato District. However, amongst the ten (non-Auckland) areas with the lowest listings rates in the past year, five have seen values rise by at least 10% (Waitangirua in Porirua has seen a 23% increase). The strength of greater Wellington is also clear – Porirua, Kapiti, and Lower Hutt combined account for six of the 10 low listings areas.
In last week’s Market Pulse we used the CoreLogic Suburb Scorecard to look at listings rates in Auckland*, and this week we shift focus to the rest of the country. Again, to assess how ‘liquid’ a suburb/area has been in terms of owners’ desire to sell, we’ve used a simple measure of listings over the past 12 months** as a percentage of total dwellings (minimum qualification of 500 in each suburb/area).
As the first chart shows, Te Kauwhata and Pokeno (both in the Waikato District) are the top two areas outside Auckland for listings rates over the past year, at 13.7% and 13.6% respectively. Put another way, that equates to one in every seven properties having been listed recently. There aren’t any real surprises here – after all, they’re both seeing plenty of new construction (with those new-builds having to be listed and sold) and are becoming more popular as ‘affordable’ areas for commuters. The median property value*** in Te Kauwhata is $564,000 and Pokeno $712,000, in both cases pretty flat over the past year or two (see the second chart).
The other eight areas of the top 10 are a mix across the country, although the Buller and Western Bay of Plenty Districts feature twice each. What stands out most, however, across the top 10 (including Te Kauwhata and Pokeno) is that a good supply of listings has tended to help keep a lid on growth in property values – indeed, five of the top 10 have seen values change by 1% or less over the past 12 months (and Omokoroa is actually down by 2%), with only Westport (6%) and Western Heights (12%) exceeding a 5% rise in values.
At the other end of the spectrum, the recent tightness of the market around the Wellington Region is clear to see – Porirua alone accounts for four of the ten areas with the lowest listings rates in the past year, with Kapiti and Lower Hutt also featuring (see the third chart). Dunedin accounts for two of the tightest suburbs, i.e. Corstorphine and Brockville. Not surprisingly, trends in property values are much stronger in these ten tighter areas – only Bromley and Cooks Beach have had relatively flat values over the past year, with growth in each of the other eight areas exceeding 5%, and five of those eight in double-digits (see the fourth chart).
Overall, the propensity to list is clearly not the only driver of property values – e.g. demand has also been subdued in Bromley (Christchurch), so a low flow of listings there hasn’t been enough to boost prices. At the same time, however, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see further gains in values around greater Wellington and Dunedin due to still-tight listings supply.
** This is the number of unique properties that have been listed for sale at any point over the past year, so it is a higher number than the total number of listings on the market today.
*** When looking at suburbs (as opposed to regions or territorial authorities), we use median property values not averages. This is because as the sample size gets smaller, medians are less distorted than averages by any very high-value properties in a particular suburb.